Saturday, October 26, 2019

Growth Rings: Future Shock



Growth Rings: Future Shock
Back in the 70’s, as a senior in high school in Urbandale, Iowa, my teacher had me read the book Future Shock by Alvin and Heidi Toffler. The authors not only predicted advancements in technology and human achievement, but also warned of a condition in which too much change in too short a period of time would cause disorientation, anxiety, and fear. The Toffler’s called this condition Future Shock.  It appears the Toffler’s were ahead of their time, predicting a day when many will experience “too much change in too short a time” (Alvin Toffler).

Today’s advances in technology are accelerating change exponentially.  Relationships, commerce, government, religion, medicine, education, and the environment all are transforming and impacting us. In follow up books, The Third Wave (1980), Power Shift (1990) and Revolutionary Wealth ~ How it will be created and how it will change our lives, (2006) Toffler described deep systemic change for mankind. 

The Third Wave
In “The Third Wave” Toffler uses the illustration of a wave to represent society. With each incoming wave, the previous society is pushed and brushed aside. In many instances, folks within each wave do not realize change is happening until it has happened. Survival and relevance are based on one’s ability to adapt.

In the book, Toffler identifies the First Wave of societal change as the invention of agriculture. Planting seeds, growing food and domesticating animals, humans moved from wandering, nomadic tribes of hunters to community builders and farmers.  With farming, family members worked together, not separated by age or gender. Time was fluid and work was dependent on the season, the climate and the weather. 

Toffler outlines the Second Wave as the invention of the steam engine and the beginning of the Industrial Age. Toffler described this wave as: “The era of mass production, mass distribution, mass consumption, mass entertainment, mass consumption, mass media, mass education, and weapons of mass destruction.” Toffler’s words cause us to pause and reflect, especially as we realize these changes were experienced by people who are still alive today. Toffler goes on to explain, “When you combine those things with standardization, centralization, and synchronization and you end up with a style of an organization called bureaucracy.”

Second Wave innovations in transcontinental transportation and increased communication resulted in artificial “Time Zones” being created. Folks carried watches so as not to be late and clothing included design features to accommodate “timepieces.” With technological advances, pocket watches evolved to wristwatches and then into fashion statements. In other words, time on task equaled achievement, created competition, and everything became bottom line-driven. The survival of the fittest became the societal norm. Anyone not embracing these beliefs was labeled a nonconformist, a hippie or a radical.



The Second Wave redefined the First Wave meaning of the word family. While the extended family was important to farming, it was not during the industrial age. On the farm, the more family you had meant the more workers you had. In the industrial age, more family members meant an increased financial burden. The extended family evolved into the nuclear family.

Living now in the Third Wave there is both fear and excitement. Toffler describes the Third Wave as the post-industrial society and a shift to the Information Age. The technology of the Second Wave needed humans to operate, and as a result, created the Middle Class. Technology of the Third Wave is eliminating the need for Middle-Class jobs. Just as the First Wave of Agriculture and the Second Wave Industrial Age reshape society, personal digital devices, the internet, robotics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and machine thinking is reshaping society once again.  This change is resulting in a transfer of power, discourse and the emergence of a new social class.

Growth Rings
Advances in health care have extended life expectancy and the window to work. Retirement in the United States has been pushed from 55 to 65 to 70 years old. Traditionalists and Baby Boomers are struggling to find their way into the Third Wave Information Age. Millenniums are stuck in-between the Second and Third Waves. They have incurred student loan debt that has not translated into a forever job or career. It is not unusual for them to still be living with parents and putting off transitioning into the world. All are going to have to learn and reinvent themselves.  Meanwhile, Generation Z is now in school.   

Growth Rings 
Emerging Growth Ring dispositions for the Third Wave are to have imagination, be able to problem-solve, create and analyze big data. It will be critical to be able to think “outside the proverbial box” and when opportunities arise, reinvent and make the most of the opportunity. Third Wave critical skills include empathy, relationships, communication, and the ability to collaborate.  These skills are crucial not only for Traditionalists and Baby Boomers to be relevant but also need to be strategically taught and embedded into K-12 schools for Generation Z.  

Third Wave needs are not for humans to conform and be a cog in the machine but to think and utilize technology to be creative and solve the real-world challenges facing mankind today. Recognizing Third Wave conditions, we have before us a once in a lifetime opportunity, to create a new DNA for teaching and learning.  



Saturday, October 19, 2019

Growth Rings: Careers, College and Debt



I am not living to work; I am working so I can enjoy my husband, my son, and my life.”

                                                                Tabitha Carver

My millennial daughter-in-law shared this thinking with me recently and I found it quite profound.  I think it reflects the thinking of many millennials and illustrates a seismic change in the ways these young people see careers and jobs.  Relationships are more valuable than titles, promotions and the traditional trappings of climbing the corporate ladder.  It means more to live, experience and contribute to life than it means to work 40+ hours. 

The phenomena we face today are that there are four generations in the workforce; Traditionalists, Baby Boomers, Generation X, and Generation Y or Millennials.  The next workforce, Generation Z, is about to come of age.  Never before in the history of mankind have so many different age groups been working at the same time. 

Generation
Born
Work is
Traditionalists
Born before 1946
An obligation. Long term career.
Baby Boomers
Born between 1946-1964
An exciting adventure. A Career. Work and then retire.
Generation X
Born between 1965-1976
A difficult challenge. A contract. Just a job.
Generation Y, or Millennials
Born 1977-1997
A means to an end. Fulfillment. Flexible work arrangements.
Generation Z
Born after 1997
???

Each generation has its own specific life experiences, which influences their perspective on career and employment. This can present a huge challenge.  What is important and meaningful to a 50-year-old is different from a 30-year-old, which is way different than a 20-year-old. 

The expectations and beliefs of those who entered the workforce in the '60s, '70s, and '80s are different than those who have entered the workforce from the 1990s to the present.  Going to work in the mid 20th Century for companies like AT&T, Sears, Exxon, General Motors, and IBM would have one believing they would have a job for life, a career, and a pension at retirement.  Economic recessions in the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s, the OPEC crisis, and the Great Recession of 2006 reshaped businesses and in turn reshaped the world of work.

Career and College
For Traditionalists, Baby Boomers, and Generation X the belief was that a college degree was the golden ticket to employment, a career, and a good life.  Families saved and made sacrifices to send their children to college.  It was not unusual to hear Traditionalists and Baby Boomers talk about going to college on the GI Bill, working their way through college or participating in university work-study programs to offset tuition costs.  This has changed with Millenniums and Generation Z.

Holding fast to the value of a college education, parents of Millenniums and Generation Z borrowed and went into debt to give their children the opportunity to get a college degree.  It didn’t matter what the degree was since the focus was just to get “the piece of paper”. They bet on their child’s future employment to repay student loans. 

As a result, young people earned degrees that did not necessarily translate into jobs or careers.  Graduates were saddled with enormous student loan debt. The statistics on this are staggering. https://lendedu.com/blog/average-student-loan-debt-statistics   Currently student loan debt in the United States is $1.52 trillion dollars which is the second-largest form of consumer debt behind mortgages.

Growth Rings: Education is important but so is the ability to go out and make one’s way in the world. According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, the average worker will have ten different jobs before the age of forty. This number is projected to grow.  It is important parents have meaningful conversations with their children on this topic.  

Determining one’s interests, aptitudes, skills and desired lifestyle is crucial. College is not for everyone. Vocational training and apprenticeships can be viable options.  

Changing the perceptions of parents, students, and educators is the challenge.  How do we do this?  How will this impact K-12 education? Systemically how do we prepare young people for jobs and careers yet to be created? 

There is lots of good work to be done.


Mike Rowe created this poster that very much speaks to the thinking in 1972 and the reality of 2020.